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Earthtime sea level11/11/2023 ![]() ![]() ![]() But this latest projection is thought to be very conservative, as it assumes a constant rate of ice flow into the oceans from Greenland and Antarctica, while there is now evidence that this rate may well be increasing. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released in 2007 refined this projection, with projected values between 18 and 59 cm. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2001, estimated that sea level would rise between 9 and 88 cm by the end of the 21st century. Sea level change 1993–2006 from satellite altimeters. On where to build, and developing infrastructuresīetter able to cope with flooding, should help to Including enhanced building codes, restrictions Variability will help reduce the uncertaintiesĪssociated with future sea level projections, thusĬontributing to more effective coastal planning Low-lying islands, such as coral atolls, are also vulnerable to sea level rise.Īn improved understanding of sea level rise and ![]() Rising sea levels will also contribute to the erosion of the world’s sandy beaches, 70% of which have been retreating over the past century. Rising sea levels will contribute to increased storm surges and flooding, even if hurricane intensities do not increase in response to the warming of the oceans. (The storm surge and high precipitation associated with hurricanes mean that they are likely to be early indicators of the effects of future sea level rise). With coastal development continuing at a rapid pace, society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise and variability – as Hurricane Katrina recently demonstrated in New Orleans. By 2010, 20 out of 30 mega-cities will be on the coast, with many low-lying locations threatened by sea level rise. In 1990, 23% of the world’s population (or 1.2 billion people) lived within 100 km of the coast and no more than 100 m above sea level,with population densities about three times higher than the global average. The coastal zone changed profoundly during the 20th century, primarily due to growing populations and increasing urbanisation. About half of the sea level rise during the first decade of the altimeter record can be attributed to thermal expansion due to a warming of the oceans the other major contributions include the combined effects of melting glaciers and ice sheets.Ĭhanges in the storage of water on land (such as the depletion of aquifers and increases in dams and reservoirs) remain very uncertain. The exact source of the accelerated rise is uncertain, but, with regard to future uncertainty, attention is being given to understanding the rate of loss of ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica. Since the beginning of high-accuracy satellite altimetry in the early 1990s, global mean sea level has been shown by both tide gauges and altimeters to be rising at a rate of just above 3 mm/year, compared to a rate of less than 2 mm/year from tide gauges over the previous century. Satellite Observations in Support of Climate Challenges SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IN SUPPORT OF CLIMATE CHALLENGES Home Foreword Preface Our Changing Climate Case Studies Earth Observation Satellite Capabilities and Plans Annexes ![]()
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